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          So you think the North American economy is bad? Have a look at the current economic realities in Ireland:.
.
• Irish Stock Exchange’s 2008 Performance: down 66% in the worst year in the 215-year history
    of the exchange.
• Irish Bank Stocks 2008 Performance: down by 90+%. Two major banks are to receive bailouts
    from the Irish government; a third major bank has been nationalized.
• Irish farmland prices remain the highest in Europe:     4 times the cost in the UK and 10 times
    the cost in France. High land costs will retard investment in Ireland.
• Economists predict Irish housing values to plunge up to 80% by the end of 2009. Many new Irish
    homeowners will end up holding underwater mortgages on their recently-built, expensive homes.
• Irish unemployment almost at 10% with some places, including Limerick city, at 15% and climbing.
    The construction sector of the Irish economy – a leading indicator of Celtic Tiger prosperity – has
    come to a screeching halt, leaving many building projects half-finished and derelict.
• Irish 2008 S&P Global Economy Performance: -69.94%. This contraction was the worst performance
    in the developed world in its worst year since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

          For a decade Ireland has been the European Union’s showcase economy, earning the nickname “Celtic Tiger” for its phenomenal business boom of the 1990s and throughout much of the first decade of the 21st century. Ireland’s good times appear over as suddenly and unexpectedly as they first arose fifteen years ago. Many economists now predict a permanent end to the era Ireland’s miracle growth, pointing to scandals that have contributed to catastrophic bank failures, rampant speculation that has oversold over-ambitious building development projects, and a housing bubble that has burst affecting an oversized portion of Ireland’s gross domestic product. Ireland’s great advantages at the start of its economic boom—a young, well-educated, underemployed workforce; relatively cheap land; a small, underdeveloped infrastructure; freshly available investment money from the European Union; and a governmental tax-incentive program that lured many international companies and a wave of immigrant labor to Ireland—have changed. The young, well-educated, underemployed native workforce has aged, become over-employed, and accustomed to being well-compensated. EU investment has slowed, as the recession has dried up funding and as other, less prosperous European nations show greater need than Ireland does. Ireland’s modernized infrastructure of super-highways, new suburbs, and high-rise cityscapes has increased the cost of living across the board. Worldwide recession has caused some international corporations to reduce its presence in Ireland, or to pull-out completely. Irish popular backlash against the great wave of foreign labor—especially from Eastern Europe—has caused some immigrants to return home, as has the slowing of the Irish economy while living costs have continually risen. Governmental tax incentives keep Ireland business-friendly, but the collapse of Irish banking has greatly reduced the availability of credit funding to businesses foreign or local. The Celtic Tiger has become a pussycat.

          English playwright John Heywood first reported it in his Tudor collection of proverbs (1546): “‘tis an ill wind that blows no good.” The proverbial ill wind now blows across Ireland, braking the once-racing Irish economy, but also forcing prices down. For visitors, prices are falling on two fronts: stagnant demand has reduced the cost of goods and services across the board; the Euro has fallen more than 20% to a level of parity with the dollar (by my reckoning based on the relative buying power of both currencies) at about $1.25/€1. Tourism to Ireland hasn’t stopped. But it has slowed significantly. For the first time in years, travel bargains exist in the former land of Celtic Tiger sticker shock where a restaurant meal could easily cost more than a week of groceries at home.

          After dining out and the cost of groceries, Home At First guests to Ireland properly list the cost of petrol for their rental cars as a major on-site travel budget item.  Currently, gasoline costs about US$5/gallon across Ireland: about 2½ times its price in the States. Last July, when a gallon gas cost about US$4 in the USA, it cost an average of about US$8.50/gallon across Ireland. During February 2009, the most recent month reporting, the cost of gasoline for American visiting Ireland had dropped more than 40% in 7 months time. Yes – the current level of US$5/gallon still seems usurious to us weaned-on-cheap-gas Yanks. But remember: Irish rental cars are small and more gas efficient than our American SUVs, averaging a real 50% improvement in gas mileage: 30mpg in Ireland vs. 20mpg here at home. That efficiency reduces the cost of driving in Ireland to a much-less-painful US$3.35/gallon for a normal two-person rental car. (That, by the way, is for a car that carries two passengers most of the time, at a cost of $1.68/gallon/person. At home, much of the time we drive solo, and pay $2/gallon/person.) Of course this paragraph manipulates statistics to demonstrate our point: the per-person cost of travel to Ireland has gone down significantly. Call it an ill-windfall.

          If the hobbled Celtic Tiger enables falling on-site costs in Ireland resulting in attractive prices to foreign visitors for the first time in years, that’s only part of the story. A second reality also favors travelers to Ireland: transatlantic airfare costs are dropping. During the decade-and-a-half of the roaring Celtic Tiger, many airlines added new flights from North America to Ireland’s Dublin and Shannon international airports to handle the increased demand. American flag airlines including American, Continental, Delta, United, and US Airways offer non-stop flights from the US to Dublin and/or Shannon at least during the warm part of the year, joining Ireland’s flag airline, Aer Lingus. With the outlook for passengers not promising for 2009, competition for what demand exists is driving down airfares. Expect the downward pressure on fares to continue throughout the year or until there is an economic upturn or one or more airlines curtails or abandons its service to Ireland.

          Home At First does your travel homework for you: packaging the best flight schedules and fares for your needs with the proper rental car arrangements, and, very importantly, with quality lodging in your preferred Ireland location for your ideal dates. Our cottages and apartments throughout Ireland meet our American quality standards (we visit and inspect them regularly) and come to us at special rates. It’s a good bet that you cannot package a trip to Ireland for less than we can package one for you, and our selection of quality, inspected lodgings ensures the success of your trip. Can you be certain that a lodging you choose randomly off the internet will provide the quality, the location, and the hosting ideal for your needs?
          Even better news: for a limited time during 2009, many of our Irish landlords are offering discounted rates on their properties for at least a portion of the weeks still unreserved. These special offers are available exclusively through Home At First. Packaged with a best-fared flight, quality car rental, and the lowest on-site prices in years, reduced-cost Home At First cottages help make your dreamed-of Irish vacation a real travel bargain for 2009.
          Is there bad news, too? Yes: all prices are subject to change, as low airfares, favorable currency exchange rates, and Home At First’s specially-priced Irish lodgings will exist only until heavy demand returns and the Celtic Tiger roars again.

          Here at Home At First, we have been watching the sudden change in the cost of travel with great interest. Recent dramatic changes in currency rates and some airfares enable us to offer a special program that might save you significant money for your 2009 Home At First trip. It’s called Instant Discounts, and here’s how it works:

• Choose a Home At First destination. Look at our published price on-line or in our 2009 Vacations
    catalogue.
• Call Home At First toll-free (US & Canada) at (800) 523-5842. We probably can reduce the price
    based on current currency exchange rates – and maybe on reduced airfares, too.
• If you like your new price quote, you get 48 hours to lock it in. If not, no harm, no foul.

          You may soon begin planning your 2009 vacation. There will be concern over the economy. But, when the conversation turns to travel, please remember there is good news for 2009. Happy HOLIDAYS from Home At First!

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Ron Fahnestock
Editor

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