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Do you have a laundry list of
travel goals? You know, destinations or activities you promised
yourself (or your spouse) you would achieve during your active
lifetime. Have you delayed putting your plans into action? Its been
easy to put off foreign travel, what with 9/11 and its aftermath.
Headlines are quieter now than at any time since the attacks against
the World Trade Center and the Pentagon 7½ years ago. Remarkably,
the news out of Iraq and Afghanistan
is not as bad as it has been in recent months
(and years),
and, measured by recent headlines, terrorism worldwide seems to have
quieted somewhat.
FEAR & INERTIA
There are always reasons close at hand that make it easy
not to achieve ones goals. They make dieting hard, and giving up
smoking even harder. They stop you from going back to school for
that advanced degree, or working your way through the pile of books
awaiting your attention. They whisper to you that they represent
viable alternatives, but what they really represent are two powerful
motivations: fear and inertia.
TRAVELERS TRAVEL
I know a lady who considers herself a traveler. Last year,
suffering with bad knees, she limited her travels to trips to Machu
Picchu and the Galapagos Islands. This year, shes off to China and
Tibet for three weeks during April, despite political unrest in
Tibet and a bothersome case of sciatica. Shes bound to accomplish
her travel goals before bigger ailments really slow her down. She
reminds me of another friend, a lady of now advanced years, who,
during her late-70s, traveled shortly after having knee replacement
surgery. She had had both knees done at once (over doctors
objections), so she wouldnt have to miss a full year of travel with
successive knee replacements plus weeks of therapy. Her first trip
on the new knees required hopping in and out of small boats and
hiking on uncertain ground: again in the Galapagos Islands.
IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID
Current headlines, when not focused on the coming
presidential election, shout loudly about the flagging economy. This
weeks great debate centers on whether the current situation
qualifies as an official recession. For many, the economy spells bad
news. For some, especially those facing threats of foreclosure, job
loss, and bankruptcy, there are valid economic reasons to postpone
achieving dreamed of travel goals this year. For most of us,
however, the sour economy will be sour with or without our staying
home this year. The bad news for travelers, of course, is that the
US dollar is weak against virtually every other currency, and that
high gas prices especially affect travel by airlines charging fuel
surcharges and by rental cars in places where gas is even higher
than at home. A weak dollar means that your overseas costs will be
higher than they should be. High gas prices means that most airline
tickets (domestic and international) plus the operation of your car
(high at home and even higher abroad) have become more expensive.
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But theres good news, too, in a perverse way. Because the
slumping economy is keeping many casual travelers home this year,
theres more space for the travelers who do go in 2008. Before the
slowdown, the travel industry, already suffering from a real decline
in the numbers of available airplane seats, rental cars, and
accommodations following the post-9/11 travel slump, expected high
demand to overwhelm available supply this year. A drop in demand
means availability exists for anyone
traveling during 2008. And, the reduction in anticipated demand has
also kept price increases not related to energy prices and security
taxes from happening as predicted. |
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WHAT GOES UP MAY NOT COME DOWN
Anyone waiting for prices to come down before traveling
overseas will probably be waiting forever. Once the US dollar
strengthens significantly, rekindled travel demand will drive prices
up. Meanwhile, no one is predicting fuel prices to drop
significantly, if at all. The days of cheap fuel, home or abroad,
may well be over. And the little-reported huge additional costs in
post 9/11 security charges and related taxes continue to pile on
every year with no end in sight.
COULD
BE WORSE
While its difficult to calculate exactly how much more an
average foreign trip will cost under these conditions, we at Home At
First figure travelers will end up spending about 10% more
overall to travel with us in 2008 than they did in 2007. A 10% rise
during a time of a falling economy may seem extreme. Expect this
increase to look mild compared to increases in other sectors of the
economy, especially energy, health care, and education.
THE
WINDOW IS CLOSING
Meanwhile, for many of you, and especially for anyone with
a laundry list of travel goals, spring is here. The time to act is
now. Life isnt getting longer, and there are goals to achieve. |
